C O M P A R AT I V E S T U D Y
It must be noted that the research papers mentioned above use different
methods to measure the quantitative interpretation of reasonable doubt in
different groups of citizens. Two methods (or, more precisely, two groups
of methods) are most commonly used for these types of measurements.
With the application of the so-called “direct methods” of assessment, one
measures the abstract attitude of respondents on the minimum degree
of proof that they believe is required for conviction. These are called
“self-report” methods.323 These are simpler methods that generally yield
higher results, namely around 0.9 on a probability scale of 0 to 1 or 90%
on a scale of 0 to 100%, and are in this regard closer to the moral and
theoretical discussions.324 On the other hand, methods called indirect
methods appear to be closer to the real situation of making decisions in
practice, because, in addition to the interests of suspects, they include
a more complex evaluation of the interests of society and of the victim,
and thus comprise a process of finding the appropriate balance between
the favourable and detrimental effects of conviction and acquittal.325 In
this regard, the decision-making criteria include more complex formulae
that measure the use (detriment) of 4 values or situations: 1) acquitting
the innocent; 2) convicting the innocent; 3) convicting the guilty, and 4)
acquitting the guilty.326 It appears that these “indirect methods” are closer
to real life situations, because, in addition to abstract liberal values, they
also reflect real concerns about fighting crime, victims’ interests etc.
It is more than understandable that, in addition to the difference of results
depending on the method applied, results also differ depending on the
population sample of the specific survey, with the value of the standard of proof
beyond reasonable doubt varying from 50 to 100% probability. Most research
shows that the degree of probability expressed by judges is approximately
90%,327 with the highest values measured among university students (91-99%).328
The modest domestic research on the standard of proof conducted
amongst legal practitioners (judges, prosecutors, attorneys and civil
society observers) and law students did not give at substantially different
results than those expressed in corresponding surveys in the USA when it
comes to the application of the direct method. The standard was evaluated
with highest values by judges and university students as proof of approx.
90% probability.329
323
See R. Hastie (Ed.), Inside the juror: The psychology of juror decision making, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
1993, pp. 84-115; Kagehiro, D. K., Defining the standard of proof in jury instructions, 1Psychological Science, 1990, 194-200.
324
See Dhami, supra.
325
See S. S. Nagel, Bringing the values of jurors in line with the law, 63 Judicature, 1979, 189-195; S. S.
Nagel, M. G. Neef, Decision theory and the legal process, Lexington Books, 1979.
326
See Dhami, supra.
327
See R. J. Simon, Judges’ translations of burdens of proof into statements of probability, 13 Trial
Lawyer’s Guide, 1969, 103-114; R. J. Simon, L. Mahan, Quantifying burdens of proof. A view from the
bench, the jury, and the classroom. Law and Society Review, 1971, 319-330.
328
See McCauliff, supra; Dhami, supra.
329
For the purposes of this study conducted was the first modest attempt to quantify the degree of probability
by surveying a100 number of domestic legal practitioners, law students and observers from civil society
organisations monitoring court proceedings.
73
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