change”27 or “Theory of Action”.28 Nowadays the Theory of Change approach is used by many
organisations such as Amnesty International, Oxfam, and the UN as a standard method outlining
how a project hopes to achieve change.
It is used to analyse the linkages among the strategies, outcomes, and goals that are needed to
achieve the vision of a project and to make assumptions explicit about “how to get from here to
there.”29 A Theory of Change helps to map how complex change could unfold over time and draw
logical conclusions between activities and results. A Theory of Change is a method to develop a
strategy and the basis for monitoring, evaluating, and adapting as change is fluid.30 It should thus
serve as a living document that gets readjusted to the context.31
Commonly, a Theory of Change asks three basic questions:32
• What is the change we want to see? – The impact we want to have?
• What needs to happen to make this change?
• What can we do to influence the change?
Consequently, a Theory of Change contains different elements:33
• A thorough and systemic analysis of the problem and why it exists. A detailed analysis helps
to disentangle risks, and windows of opportunity for change.34 Gaining a deeper understanding
how different social, political, legal, and economic systems interact, increases the effectiveness of
the project (see below, § 2.2).35
• A statement of a vision that paints a hopeful image of the desired change and provides motivation
and guidance (see also below, § 2.3).
• The identification of the necessary change, or in other words the outcomes and results that need
to be achieved but do not lie in our main sphere of influence. This requires extensive research and
evidence. During every stage of the project the evaluation of the change identified as necessary
should be based on sufficient and credible evidence.36 It can be useful to identify the different
dimensions of change (e.g. legal, policy, management, public awareness).
• The identification of activities to undertake to influence the desired change. These should be
targeted and measurable (indicators) and can be divided into short-mid- and long-term results.
These should ideally be Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Result-oriented and Time-bound
(SMART) and connected to indicators. 37
These steps are mapped on a timeline to show the pathway of change, linking each activity back to
the vision:
In line with the systemic approach it is important to clearly articulate the assumptions on why
each of the steps is necessary to achieve change. The limits of our own views should be recognised
and our assumptions constantly revised. Ideally, the development of a Theory of Change integrates
multiple perspectives, especially from different sectors/movements (in this specific context
for example, anti-racism, children’s rights, fight against poverty, migration, etc) or disciplines (e.g.
psychology, sociology) and to involve external stakeholders in the development of the Theory of
27. Birk and others, ‘Enhancing Impact of National Preventive Mechanisms’ (2015) 12.
28. Richard English and others, ‘Influencing for Impact Guide: How to Deliver Effective Influencing Strategies’ (Oxfam 2020) 33.
29. Stachowiak, ‘Pathways to Change’ (2013) 2.
30. English et al., ‘Influencing for Impact Guide’ (2020) 36.
31. ibid, 34.
32. Suntinger and Birk, ‘Systemic Thinking in Preventive Human Rights Monitoring’ (2021) 32.
33. Terms differ across different guides.
34. English et al., ‘Influencing for Impact Guide’ (2020) 34.
35. UN OHCHR, ‘Annex I: UN Human Rights’ Theory of Change and Results Framework’ (2014) 153.
36. UNDG LAC, ‘Theory of Change: Concept Note’ (2016) 4.
37. OHCHR, ’Human Rights Indicators’ (2012) 50.
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